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Dating recession

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Below is a look at four of the measures mentioned: real GDP (and real GDI), industrial production, employment and real personal income excluding transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.

This bottomed in Sept 2009, but has only increased slightly since then and is still 6% below the pre-recession peak.

Once again - looking back - this measure returned to the pre-recession peak between the 19/1982 recessions.

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Between the early '80s recessions, industrial production didn't quite return to pre-recession levels - but it was only about 0.5% below the previous peak. Between the two recession in the early '80s, employment returned to the pre-recession peak. And the last graph is for real personal income excluding transfer payments through May.

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However a recession is a possibility, and the following describes how NBER differentiates between a "double dip" and a new recession.

economic growth to slow in the 2nd half (a sluggish and choppy recovery), but not slide into recession.